Argentina’s presidential election pre-election, opposition candidate Alberto voted sharply ahead of the re-election of the president, Mark, so that the community fell below the glasses, the opposition party was also surprised, showing former President Fernandez The success of the strategy as a deputy may regain power.
Jorge Lanata, a senior media person in Argentina, pointed out that the results of the pre-selection exceeded the forecasts of all polling agencies. Even Alberto Fernandez himself believed that he could get up to 10 percentage points and the result would be more than 15 percentage points. If the pre-selection results are repeated on October 27th, Alberto will be elected president in the first round of voting.
For Mauricio Macri, this result indicates that its economic policy failed and failed to promote Argentina’s economic growth. Although this is not his own fault, Markley said after the pre-election that elections are the expression of public opinion and that they did not receive the expected support of voters, which means that in the past three and a half years, the people have experienced the accumulated anger of the difficult economic process.
For Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the former president who partnered with Alberto, the results of the pre-selection showed that she was far from the focus of the media and succeeded as a strategy for deputy competition.
Fernandez governed Argentina from 2007 to 2015, accused of corruption and multi-case lawsuits. If Fernandez and Alberto win, according to the Argentine decree, Fernandez will have four years of parliamentary immunity, in addition to serving as vice president, she will also become the Speaker of the Senate.
Marcos Novaro, a professor of political science at the University of Buenos Aires, believes that Fernandez and Alberto are just the way to let Fernandez continue to participate in political games. The risk is great.
Both Alberto and Fernandez are supporters of Belonism (the native American socialism). In order to disperse their votes, Markri chose the proponents of the Belonists but sang against Fernandez. Miguel Pichetto is a deputy, but the results of the pre-selection show that this strategy is not as effective as the opponent.
Political analyst Gabriel Kohlmann pointed out that Markli’s new economic liberalism, which is extremely important in strengthening the relationship between the Argentine government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), may also scare the public, although the prospects for a medium- and long-term economy can be improved. Expected, but in the short term, it may have a negative effect on national finances.
Coleman believes that the opposition party’s advantage in the pre-selection is difficult to regain, because Markley lost in many important votes, such as Buenos Aires, Alberto has a 50% vote, but Mark has only achieved 29 %.
Keman pointed out that there are two ways in Mark’s way to try to turn things around. One is to strengthen the attack on Fernandez’s accused corruption, and the other is to strengthen his image as the best choice for the centrist voters.
Markley can also try to win the support of the third-ranked Roberto Lavagna, but it may be difficult, because it means that Lavagna must make a bet on his future career.
The results of the pre-selection triggered a shock in the financial market in Argentina. Yesterday, the peso fell 20% against the US dollar, the benchmark interest rate rose to 74%, and the stock market fell 35%.
Coman pointed out that in addition to the scandal involving Fernandez’s greed, the economic policy emphasized by Alberto also made the market unsatisfied. For example, he suggested that the Argentinean currency be devalued to encourage export measures; there is also deepening social support policies and more protectionist economic policies to meet the needs of Argentine industry, especially the automotive industry closely related to Fernandez. .
Another issue that financial markets are worried about is whether Alberto will fulfill its commitment to the International Monetary Fund. Albatros’s economic policy adviser, Matias Kulfas, today accepted an interview with the Argentine Clarin, reiterating that Alberto will abide by the principles of foreign debt management but will amend the agreement.
In addition, Alberto also claimed to be interested in revising the trade agreement between the Southern Common Market (Mercosul) and the European Union. Coman pointed out that once Fernandez regains power, the progressive system within the Southern Cone economy is likely to reverse, because its government will protect domestic industry more than Markley.
Similarly, if Alberto is elected to the Argentine president, diplomatic relations with countries such as Brazil may also worsen. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has publicly supported Mark’s re-election, and even said that the opposition party will regain power and Argentina will become another Venezuela.
Nevertheless, the University of Brasilia historian Virgilio Caixeta analyzed that both Posonalo and Alberto’s remarks may change after the election, after all, Argentina is the third largest in Brazil. Trading partners, and Argentina also needs to strengthen trade in the Southern Common Market to get out of the crisis.